RSX / RSXJ recovery monitor

A zero valuation
does not mean zero value.

Scenario-based estimates of potential liquidation distributions from stranded Russian ETFs. Fund holdings, local value and sanctions constraints — on one screen.

Build a scenario ↗How it works

Not investment advice · Not a price forecast · Data may be delayed

RSX · VALUE GAP31 JUL 2026

Official NAV$0.34

0$11.15

Gross local estimate32.8×

The gap is not arbitrage. Sanctions, ownership rights, liquidity, FX conversion and costs stand between local value and any distribution.

ETF trading discontinued Liquidation plan remains active Local assets remain inaccessible Future distributions may be possible

Scenario lab

From local value to a potential distribution

Loading delayed MOEX data…

Official NAV$0.34local securities valued near zero

Gross local estimate$11.15before restrictions, discounts and costs

Distribution in your scenario$3.01conditional estimate — not a forecast or price

RSXVanEck Russia ETF

Snapshot: 30–31 July 2026

Accessible assetsshare that could legally be realized50%Sale price vs. local valueliquidity and execution discount65%FX value retainedruble value when proceeds are converted80%Value retained after coststax, custody, legal and liquidation costs95%Probability of distribution by 2030your assumption, not an editorial probability20%

Probability-weighted indicator$0.60shown only to compare scenarios; this is not fair value

Comparison per fund share

Official NAV$0.34

Your scenario$3.01

Gross local estimate$11.15

23/28

Position coverage

Includes direct MOEX matches and seven separately labelled DR proxies. A proxy estimates underlying local value, not legal access or recoverability.

Largest matched positions

RSX: local portfolio value

$32.8M fund cash

0/23 priced from MOEXMOEX matches include 7 DR proxies. The × factor shows current local shares per disclosed unit; proxy value is not necessarily recoverable.

#SecuritySharesStatusMOEX priceLocal value

01SBER RMSberbank46,050,016MOEX matched—$159.8M

02LKOH RMLukoil2,063,982MOEX matched—$119.2M

03NVTK RMNovatek7,452,940MOEX matched—$93.4M

04GMKN RMNornickel52,917,800MOEX matched—$79.6M

05ROSN RMRosneft16,922,345MOEX matched—$73.9M

06GAZP RMGazprom45,772,138MOEX matched—$52.8M

07.PHOR1 RUPrivate position2Private—not valued

08.PHOR2 RUPrivate position13,642Private—not valued

09ALRS RMAlrosa33,188,190MOEX matched—not valued

10ATAD LI ↗Tatneft GDR3,393,156Local proxy ×6—not valued

11EVR LNEvraz266,000Not mapped—not valued

12IESK RUIrkutsk Electronetwork7,410,870Not mapped—not valued

13IRAO RMInter RAO482,502,010MOEX matched—not valued

14MNOD LI ↗Nornickel GDR4Local proxy ×10—not valued

15MOEX RMMoscow Exchange17,946,312MOEX matched—not valued

16NLMK RMNovolipetsk Steel22,272,460MOEX matched—not valued

17OZON ↗Ozon Holdings8,707Local proxy ×1—not valued

18PHOR RMPhosAgro705,974MOEX matched—not valued

19PLZL LI ↗Polyus GDR1,155,875Local proxy ×5—not valued

20RASP RMRaspadskaya730,890MOEX matched—not valued

21RTKM RMRostelecom13,944,591MOEX matched—not valued

22SGGD LI ↗Surgutneftegas GDR1,364,815Local proxy ×10—not valued

23SNGS RMSurgutneftegas125,211,510MOEX matched—not valued

24SVST LI ↗Severstal GDR3,405,164Local proxy ×1—not valued

25TRNFP RMTransneft preferred2,097,200MOEX matched—not valued

26VKCO LI ↗VK IPJSC2,338,938Local proxy ×1—not valued

27VTBR RMVTB Bank13,375,470MOEX matched—not valued

Portfolio history

Current-holdings local value

A reconstructed backcast using today's disclosed share quantities and historical MOEX closes. It is not historical RSX NAV.

MOEX reconstruction shown until the database has enough daily snapshots

Building history from MOEX daily candles…

Uses the current snapshot FX rate for comparability; it does not reconstruct historical conversion terms.

Actual cash history

VanEck RSX distributions

Historical distributions per fund share reported by VanEck. Past distributions do not imply another payment.

26 Dec 2025$0.01

24 Dec 2024$0.04

07 Oct 2024$0.22

19 Apr 2024$0.68

22 Dec 2023$0.02

29 Sep 2023$0.31

27 Jul 2023$0.34

12 Jan 2023$0.03

Path to a distribution

Unlocking is a chain, not a single decision

The removal of one sanction is not enough. Funds must pass every legal and operational gate.

04 Mar 2022

RSX and RSXJ trading halted

The exchange suspended secondary trading after access to Russian assets was lost.

12 Jan 2023

Delisting and initial distributions

The funds distributed available liquidity and retained the unsold securities.

02 Oct 2024

Securities moved to local registrars

Decree No. 840 added another operational layer to confirming ownership rights.

Now

Sales and fund transfers remain restricted

VanEck reports no material change that would allow the assets to be sold.

Next milestone

Authorization → sale → conversion → distribution

All four steps must become legally and operationally possible.

1Authority to sellregulatory risk

2Access to assetscustody risk

3RUB → USD conversionoperational risk

4Transfer of proceedsoperational risk

5Distribution through DTCCoperational risk

Methodology

We show the assumptions, not an answer.

RSXValue matches VanEck-disclosed positions to locally traded securities, including seven separately labelled depositary-receipt proxies with verified conversion ratios. It converts their gross look-through value into dollars and applies user-selected assumptions.

potential distributioncash + Σ(local value × access × sale × FX) − costs÷ estimated fund shares outstanding